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The worst flooding in decades.
More than 150 deaths were recorded in Germany and Belgium this week.
The rivers overflowed their banks due to the recorded rains, devastating the area and completely destroying some villages.
Experts argue that part of the catastrophic flood in Western Europe A history of the declared disaster And the culprit is climate change.
Other experts say that although weather warnings have been raised about the coming rains, they are not expected to be that large and that better forecasting tools are needed.
“Squeezing too much water”
Many factors contribute to flooding, but warmer climates due to climate change increase the chance of intense rainfall.
The planet has already warmed to about 1.2 C since the beginning of the industrial age and temperatures will continue to rise unless governments around the world make drastic cuts in CO2 emissions.
“Such (climate events (in Europe) occur from time to time (in Europe), but now, with the general warming of the climate and rising temperatures, there may be more and more vapor in the air masses,” Thomas Endrட்lt of the German Meteorological Service explained to Reuters.
“So when this congestion occurs, This cloud expels more water from the sponge Due to climate change, “he said.
Referring to the weather forecast issued for Germany before the floods, the expert said the warnings were issued in a timely manner but there were unpredictable things.
“The rain warnings were timely, but what is happening is very difficult and Depending on the history and enrichment of the soil,In addition to the condition of dams and reservoirs. It also depends on the timing factor: if something like this happens at night, if people do not know what the sirens mean or if it is difficult to reach them through the media, “Endrull explained.
“Those conditions are always different, which is why it’s more complex than a simple weather forecast,” he analyzed.
For his part, Northern Rhine-Westphalia Environment Minister Ursula Heinen-esser said on Friday that climate change was the main reason behind the tragedy.
“The challenge is that sometimes we have to deal with severe drought and sometimes very heavy rain,” the local newspaper co-ordinator told Stat-Ansiger.
He said the soil “could not absorb much water due to the drought of previous years and the rains of recent weeks”, which in this situation “It is practically impossible to act in the short term.”
Chronicle of the announced disaster
Scientists have been predicting for years that rain and heat waves will intensify due to climate change.
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They continue to warn politicians that more needs to be done to protect civilians from extreme weather events such as the floods in Europe and the heatwave that hit North America a few days ago.
Hannah Clock, a professor of hydrology at the University of Reading in the UK, told BBC environmentalist Roger Harabin that “deaths and extinctions in Europe as a result of the floods are a tragedy to be avoided.”
“Meteorologists issued warnings earlier in the week, yet The warnings were not taken adequately And the arrangements are not enough, “he said.
“The fact that other parts of the Northern Hemisphere are experiencing unprecedented heat waves and fires is a reminder of how dangerous our climate is in an increasingly hot world,” Clock said.
Scientists say governments need to reduce CO2 emissions that trigger extreme events and be prepared for extreme weather.
In a general analysis of these extreme phenomena of the planet, scientists also warn of their own difficulties in predicting them.
They recognize that their computers are not powerful enough to accurately plan the severity of these events.
Some experts are asking governments to invest Shared Climate Supercomputer, The new “Bible” of climate science, from the International Commission on Climate Change (IPCC).
But former UK Meteorological Office chief scientist Professor Dame Julia Slingo told the BBC it would not help at all because “the IPCC (climate system) models are not enough.”
“(We need) an international hub to develop quantum leaps in climate models that capture the basic physics that cause extreme (events),” he said.
“If we don’t do that, We underestimate the intensity / frequency of events (events) And their unprecedented nature is increasing, ”the professor said.
Oxford professor Tim Palmer agrees.
“Because we can’t say what kind of emergency it is We have no tools To answer this question, ”Palmer told BBC Environmental Analyst Roger Harabin.
“We need a commitment and vision to the extent of CERN (Europe’s leading physics research center) if we want to develop climate models that can accurately simulate climate extremes such as heat wave in Canada,” he warned.
Most importantly, researchers need to assess whether places like North America or Germany face extreme weather events such as heat domes and floods every 20, 10, 5 or every year.
At present, this level of accuracy is not possible.
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